(Update, 24-April-2012: The 2012 draw procedure has been announced. The procedure is as predicted, so the specific hypotheticals discussed in this post are valid. Skip down to the section entitled “The Possible Scenarios…” to avoid the now unnecessary-to-read sections regarding the methodology for predicting the draw procedure.)
The draw to determine the groups for the women’s soccer tournament at the London 2012 Olympics will be held on Sunday, April 24th at Wembley Stadium. Although the women’s field has been finalized, the draw procedure has yet to be released, which is not out of the ordinary.* In the absence of an actual draw procedure, the next best thing is to figure out the most likely procedure. And, the past draw procedures for the Olympics provide a good roadmap for doing just that.
(Edit: Forgot to add a link to the 2008 draw procedure (PDF), which was in the “Past Draw Procedures” section, which I removed to a separate post.)
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